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Dernière mise à jour : Mai 2018

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Estimating the prevalence of SARS-Cov-2 with influenza surveillance networks

25 June 2020

The true prevalence of the new coronavirus is difficult to estimate as RT-PCR tests are limited, as false-negative rate is high and because of the asymptomatic or sub-clinical infections. American researchers have worked on the use of influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance data to estimate the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2. They correlated the ILI case above the seasonal average with COVID-19 case counts. They proposed a conceptual model for the COVID-19 epidemic in the US with rapid spread and over 80% infected patients remaining undetected. These findings need further investigations and comparison with seroprevalence data to evaluate the broader potential to use surveillance data in place for early detection and follow-up of emerging infectious diseases.

Link: https://stm.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/06/22/scitranslmed.abc1126