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A collaboration of French research centres (CESBIO/OMP, CNES / CNRS / IRD / UPS et ASTRE, CIRAD / INRAE) published a paper on the use of chaos theory to develop epidemiologic models to simulate COVID19 epidemics in various countries. Most of the predictive models, commonly used to simulate epidemics, are based on hard data which are often unknown in the case of an emerging virus such as SARS-Cov-2. They configurated the model with data from China, South Korea, Japan and Italy and applied it to other countries to predict scenarios of the epidemic and help decision making on control measures. The simulations were confirmed by epidemiological dynamics in reality and this approach seems quite reliable to help in the case of new emerging diseases.

Links: https://www.insu.cnrs.fr/fr/cnrsinfo/la-theorie-du-chaos-appliquee-lepidemie-de-covid-19

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268820000990